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Good news arrived from Geneva on Monday afternoon. At 9:00 a.m. on May 12, Swiss time, the China-U.S. talks culminated in a significant consensus with the official release of the China-U.S. Geneva Joint Statement on Economic and Trade Talks, in which both sides pledged to implement measures by May 14, 2025.

The United States will:

Modify the ad valorem tariffs imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions) under Executive Order 14257 (April 2, 2025), suspending the 24% tariff for an initial 90-day period while retaining the remaining 10% tariff as stipulated in the order.

Revoke the additional tariffs imposed under Executive Order 14259 (April 8, 2025) and Executive Order 14266 (April 9, 2025) on these goods.

China will:

Correspondingly adjust the ad valorem tariffs on U.S. goods as outlined in Customs Tariff Commission Announcement No. 4 (2025), suspending the 24% tariff for an initial 90-day period while retaining the 10% tariff and revoking the additional tariffs imposed under Announcement No. 5 (2025) and No. 6 (2025).

Take necessary measures to suspend or rescind non-tariff countermeasures against the U.S. implemented since April 2, 2025.

Looking at the White House’s briefing, the message is similar. In short:

The U.S. has removed 91% of its additional tariffs, and China has reciprocally lifted 91% of its retaliatory tariffs.

The U.S. has suspended the 24% 'reciprocal tariffs,' and China has likewise suspended its 24% retaliatory tariffs.

A 10% baseline tariff remains, along with an unmentioned/unrepealed 20% 'fentanyl-related tariff.'

From the Joint Statement: Some Details Remain Unsettled

The agreement leaves certain specifics open—such as the ultimate fate of the '24% tariff suspension within 90 days.' But the most pressing issue—the 91% retaliatory tariffs—has been resolved.

For cross-border e-commerce, this marks a turning point:
At the very least, the door to dialogue is open. Abnormal trade barriers are being pulled back into a negotiable framework, and absurd tariffs are being rolled back to levels where business can function.

Translation: 'Both sides will establish a mechanism for ongoing trade consultations'

= Next time Trump calls, someone on this end will pick up.

For now, it’s best to stay calm.
Neither 'quick victory' nor 'quick defeat' is realistic. Given Trump’s businessman mentality, his 79-year-old cunning, and his 800 layers of schemes, you won’t know whether he’s playing black, white, or even Connect Four until the final move.
And he’s really good at backtracking.

May 12: A Significant Date for China

Whether facing natural disasters or man-made crises, there’s nothing we can’t endure. If we could negotiate manufacturing strength inside shipping containers, we can certainly negotiate tariff rates across a table.

Truth lies within the range of a J-10C.
With tariffs slashed this much, we might as well kowtow to the J-10 in gratitude.

May: A Critical Month for the U.S.

Trump’s usual style? 'Never reason when you can bully.'
The fact that he’s suddenly willing to negotiate means he’s running out of options.

America’s Deepening Crisis

Foreign holdings of U.S. debt:

U.S. fiscal 2025:

June 2025: $6.5 trillion in maturing debt (up $5.5 trillion from last year).

May’s inflation surge + June’s debt cliff = Trump’s desperation
'You tell me not to panic… but I’m panicking.'

The Fed’s Dilemma

Earlier this month, the Fed delayed rate cuts again, citing Trump’s tariff hikes and the looming threat of inflation + rising unemployment.
Market analysts now predict:

No more than 3 rate cuts in 2025

Total cuts <75 bps

First cut delayed until July at earliest

If tariffs stay high → higher inflation → Fed holds rates → higher debt costs → market crash (stocks, bonds, dollar).
This is the real reason behind Trump’s sudden softening stance—he’s out of time.

The Only Way Out: Lower Tariffs → Lower Inflation → Rate Cuts → Debt Refinancing

To stabilize prices, the U.S. must slash tariffs, flood the market with cheap Chinese goods, and only then can the Fed cut rates—allowing the Treasury to roll over old debt with new borrowing.

Opportunity for Cross-Border E-Commerce

From an anti-inflation perspective, this is a golden era for cross-border trade with the U.S.

Trade Outlook

April 2025 China trade data (Customs):

U.S. exports plunged 21% YoY (due to April’s tariff spike).

ASEAN exports +12.6%, EU +6% (supply chain diversification at work).

Final Thought

This deal isn’t about 'winning'—it’s about buying time.
For cross-border sellers, the key is to move fast while the window is open.
Because in Trump’s world, **today’s concession could be tomorrow’s reversal.

U.S. Container Imports Show Resilient Growth, China Leads Surge

From February to April 2025, U.S. container imports maintained strong momentum, marking three consecutive months of growth.

April imports hit 2,410,371 TEUs (↑1.2% MoM, ↑9.1% YoY), the second time this year exceeding 2.4 million TEUs.

Imports from China rose 5.4% MoM and 6.2% YoY, accounting for 33.4% of total U.S. container imports.

China contributed the largest volume increase, adding 41,000 TEUs—likely due to pre-tariff stockpiling.

The Geneva Deal Averts a 'V-Shaped Collapse'

Without the U.S.-China Geneva Joint Statement, May exports could have faced a steep plunge.

Now, with 91% of tariffs rolled back (despite the unresolved 24% 'reciprocal tariffs'), seller confidence has rebounded sharply.

Expect a Wave of Restocking + Peak Season Rush

Short-term: A surge in orders to compensate for April’s tariff-driven shortages.

Long-term: Traditional peak-season stocking will compound demand.

Challenges ahead:

Rising ocean freight rates

Tight container space

Port congestion risks

Currency volatility

Unresolved Issues: T86 & 'Fully Hosted' Model

The Geneva statement did not mention T86 exemptions or clarify the fate of 'fully hosted' cross-border e-commerce models.

Next-round negotiations could bring further breakthroughs for Chinese sellers.

Final Take: Tariffs Can’t Stop Cross-Border E-Commerce

Despite policy turbulence, global demand for Chinese goods remains unshakable.

Gucang (GoodCang) remains bullish on the long-term prospects of cross-border trade and China’s export resilience.

Stay tuned for deeper analysis on U.S. tariff policies.

As always: Tariffs may shift, but globalization won’t reverse. ????????